Linda said:

I think it was Peter Drucker who said something like if it can't be measured it can't be managed. How do we measure progress in this work so that we know what needs to be tweeked when?

I recently came across this HBS article called Six Rules for Effective Forecasting which I think might provide some insights to you about what you can effectively map/measure. As the article is subtitled:

The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present.

Still trying to come up with the exact "here's how it applies to you" but I think there's a there there.